Medium and long term contradictions: in the late stage of the epidemic, the consumption growth brought about by China's economic recovery is still difficult to match the growth rate of supply.
Short term contradictions: the accumulation of stocks in the off-season and the recovery progress of overseas demand.
Our view: the latest inventory data shows 725000 tons, with a weekly change of 13000 tons. In August, the number of new orders for profiles, strips and cables has gradually declined, and the start-up situation of processing enterprises has formed a differentiation. The orders of leading enterprises can still maintain the smooth operation of the operating rate, while the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has declined due to the shortage of orders. Domestic demand is further weakened, but it is expected to maintain growth year-on-year. In terms of exports, overseas countries are in the stage of economic recovery, but with the high ratio of domestic and foreign, the export increment driven by the improvement of foreign demand is still limited, and the export is expected to remain low. On the supply side, new production mainly in Yunnan can be released continuously. According to the production plan, the capacity increment will be significantly increased in the second half of the year, and the supply growth trend will remain unchanged. The accumulation of aluminum ingots in the off-season is expected to return to the level of 800-900000 tons, but the absolute volume is still low. Therefore, the price rhythm actually depends on the control of the market bulls. The bulls in the month of last week have faded, and the risk of "tight positions" is alleviated. In this case, there is a demand for aluminum prices to callback, but in the face of the boom in September In the quarter, inventory will usher in a downward inflection point, which still has strong support for the aluminum price. In the short term, we still wait and see. We should pay attention to the downward rhythm of aluminum price and the subsequent accumulation of stocks. We can consider the long bargain before the peak season and the borrow position.
